Robertson is a 28-year-old reliever making league minimum. Last year he posted a 9.04 K/9 in AAA, but was betrayed by too many walks and bad luck. Marcels projects a 4.27 FIP, but there’s probably some upside with his strikeout potential. Expect him to compete for a job in the ‘pen this spring.
Shoeneweis, on the other hand, projects for a 4.71 FIP.
Now that’s a trade. The albatross is gone. O is on a roll.
Filed under Quick Reaction
Much has been written about the J.J. Putz elements of the Mets last night’s blockbuster. Read Eric’s recap, if your looking for a good summary of J.J.’s value to the Mets.
But what about those other two guys? Well, Shawn Sean Green is basically a slightly older and slightly better version of Joe Smith. Not a bad swap for a team so desperate to win now. And oh yea, corks are weird.
Jeremy Reed is a slightly more interesting case. First a brief history: The Chicago White Sox selected Jeremy Reed in the second round of the 2002 MLB Draft (the Moneyball draft) from Long Beach State University. In 2003, Reed was the White Sox Minor League Player of the Year after batting .409 in 66 AA-games at age 22. Baseball America wrote this report, after ranking him the best prospect in Chicago’s system:
Reed can really hit. He not only has a simple stroke that allows him to make contact almost at will but he also has a terrific eye for the strike zone. He walked nearly twice as much as he struck out in 2003. Wally Backman, his manager at Birmingham, says Reed has such an advanced ability to anticipate pitches that he sometimes helps teammates prepare for at-bats.
Then, in classic Kenny Williams fashion, he was sent to the Mariners for Freddy Garcia. In 2005, he was the Mariners centerfielder. His offensive value was severely hampered by a .254 BA, which can be partially attributed to a 18.9% line drive rate, not good for a player whose best skill is contact. The silver lining, however, was his awesome 13.2 UZR in center that year (that’s more than double Beltran’s 2008). The next year, Reed suffered all sorts of injuries in the field. He spent 2007 in AAA Tacoma and posted .806 OPS. Then in 2008, he posted .349 average (.357 BABIP) in AAA before being called up to the struggling Mariner squad and hitting .269.
Reed is 27 this year and still something of a mystery. Is he the frustrated AAA masher who put up a .970 OPS or just AAAA/Bench type? Is he the slightly below average fielder he was in limited play last year, or the terrific centerfielder of 2005? Like John Maine and Oliver Perez, he is a former top prospect, acquired as a throw-in. Will he be the suprise contributer they were? We’ll see, but consider these questions next time you’re quick to dismiss him as a significantly less valuable than Endy Chavez.
Filed under Opinion
Initial reactions:
Filed under Opinion, Quick Reaction
Apparently, John Smoltz is considering signing with the Mets. Signing John Smoltz would be an excellent move, for all sorts of reasons. 
First of all, John Smoltz is not Tom Glavine. Before his injury last year, Smolts pitched 28 innings, struck out 36, and walked just 8. Glavine pitched a shade over 60 innings before his injury, with a 37K/37BB. The two things they have in common is old-age, injury-risk, and great legacies with the Braves. Although, there may be no three things Mets fans are more disgusted with, the fundamental difference between the two is Smoltz is still good, really good, while Glavine sucks and should retire. I know many Mets fans unfairly view Glavine as some sort of traitor who waited 4 years to sabatoge the Mets. Besides being insanely stupid on its own, this assumption is not a reason to dislike Smoltz. He’s considering the Mets because he wants to win a championship.
With that out of the way, let’s consider Smoltz’s value to the Mets. He’s not a solution for the rotation. He is old and injury prone. His appeal to the Mets should be as a fifth starter, who if hurt, can be replaced by Niese. The innings he does provide as a starter, however, are almost guaranteed to be high quality, way better than your average 5th starter. The hidden beauty of this plan is Smoltz’s tendency to become a power reliever when he gets hurt, as he famously did for years at a time with the Braves. Smoltz’s arsenal allows him to become a 99-mph fastball, slider pitcher when he needs to reduce his innings. So let’s assume he pitches 120 innings next year. Being replaced by relievers, and becoming a reliever himself, I’ll say it’s 60/60 innings replacement for starters/relievers. Marcels has Smoltz at a 3.50 FIP, and 5.50 FIP as the average starter and 4.50 FIP for relievers. After a quick search for my calculator, we discover Smoltz is 20 runs above average, so +2 wins above replace.
Assuming each win is worth 5 million dollars, he’s worth 10MM, although he’ll probably sign for something closer to 5MM. He’s a player who fills two of the Mets needs: starting depth and power relief and will probably sign for half his worth. Please find it in your heart to accept one more former Brave.
Pros
Cons
Filed under Uncategorized
In case you haven’t heard, fangraphs added UZR. huzzah
After cursory glance, meet the Mets:
More analysis later.
Filed under sabremetrics
I initially balked at any suggestion the Mets sign Orlando Hudson. The more I think about it, however, the stronger the case for signing him seems in my mind. This signing may be closer to happening that we think, as the Mets seems keen to sign him on any chance to dump Castillo. Here are a variety of factors that make the signing more rational.
Context: The Mets blew it. Twice. But there’s no need to go down that road again. Those miscues do, however, put the Mets in a precarious position. They need to win now, perhaps like no other team in history. Their core is arguably better than Doc/Straw/Keith, and probably the best in the majors. Reyes and Wright are at their offensive peaks. Santana, while still a deity, is past his prime. Carlos Voltron, past his offensive prime, seems to be in the throes of strange and beautiful defensive god-period. The talent exists, the stadium is opening, the failure looms. Drastic measures (big contracts) can be justified.
Holes: Despite his penchant for the “big deal,” Omar Minaya seems to suck at finishing a roster. Beltran and Santana have been mentioned, but the Milledge trade, the Castillo/Alou signings, the bullpen, and the bench have been compounding disasters. This flaw seems strange give his relative skill in these areas in 2006, which may have been a bit lucky. While it seems they’re going to fix the bullpen (to an extent) this off-season, two major holes remain (left field, second base). While most Mets fans debate whether it should be Murphy-Dunn or Castillo-Murphy, neither of those seem realistic with the Mets’ front office. Instead, it looks like some combination of Murphy, Castillo, and Raul Ibanez. Finally, Hudson enters the picture.
Replacement: If Hudson is at second, Murphy’s in left. Assuming a normal return from injury, and a subsequent revival of fielding skills, Hudson could be anywhere from a 3.5-4 win player. Luis Castillo, on the other hand, projects to be about one win above replacement. That means the put the difference between the two anywhere between 2-3 wins in Hudson’s favor, no small feat, but perhaps not enough to justify another Castillo like contract, right? Well consider the possibilities without Hudson. Murphy at second/Ibanez in left: although his bat is more valuable at second, his unproven/poor defense might undermine his offensive contributions. Ibanez, on the other hand is maybe a half a win in left due to poor defense. Daniel the leftfielder projects to be anywhere from 2 or (I shit you not) 4 wins better than Ibanez. Assuming that currently the Mets are leaning toward Castillo/Ibanez, the money and position of Hudson would force them into a Hudson/Murphy play. That’s 5-8 wins at stake.
Pitching: The emergence of GB fiend Big Pelf and the imminent arrival of John Niese, the Mets could use Hudson’s D. Assuming that both secondbasmen return from injury/laziness, Hudson at +10 runs in the field and Castillo and -8 seems reasonable. Throw in the possible addition of a Derek Lowe or Andy Sonnanstine, and the Mets go from flyball to groundball staff in a year, and the need for good infield defense becomes apparent.
Intangibles: Much has been made about Hudson’s desire to play for the Mets and leadership qualities. While I don’t always put alot of stock in this stuff, I wouldn’t mind a player I could really root for.
Filed under Opinion
According to Joel Sherman, the Mets basically refused taking Chad Bradford from the Rays for nothing. They were apparently hung up on his 3.5 million dollar salary, and I can’t imagine why.
Although Bradford over-performed a bit last year, he’s a solid reliever. Statistically, he’s the anti-2008-Aaron-Heilman. I honestly can’t name a reliever who is clearly better than Bradford from our current bullpen.
Not to mention, he was an integral member of the incredible 2006 bullpen which carried us to the playoffs.
Filed under omar?
Based on my projections from yesterday, I’d like to propose a new statistic: Wins above Raul Ibanez (WaRI). This statistic measures how many more games we would win with player X in left field, as opposed to Ibanez. So before I fall into an impassioned rant about how friendliness can’t field a deep flyball, let’s consider the numbers…sorted by WaRI…
Considering this groundbreaking data, contract demands, and compensation requirements the choice is clear: sign Adam Dunn, play Murph at second. Sadly, Omar still lives in Raultopia.
Filed under Adam Dunn, statistics
HBT Fantasy Focus
