The Mets, finally free of Moises Alou, can focus on finding a LFer likely to finish camp with both legs. Plenty of options remain, with the free agent and trade markets dormant so far.
Below is a chart comparing the outfield targets the Mets have been linked to so far. The first column shows the projected wOBA for that player in 2009, based on the Bill James Projections (courtesy of Fangraphs). The second column shows an estimated plus/minus rating for each player assuming 1300 innings in Left Field. The remaining columns estimate the wins a contributes offensively, defensively, total, and the salary that should merit.
A few notes: these calculations are rough. The salary is in units per million. These are not adjusted for position but all assumed the player playing 700 PA and 1300 IP in as a LFer (subtracting one win would probably be a decent adjustment). Fielding is not an exact science and for players like Rivera and Murphy, sample size may have badly hampered the accuracy of the projections.
This data confirms my belief that Ibanez is very overrated.
The Mets in house (and cheap) options look good in this system. Endy rates better than Dye, Ibanez, Rivera, and Young. Murphy looks better than everyone except Bradley and Manny, the heavyweights of this year’s free agent class. Murphy’s projection is suspect, however, as Bill James’ projection may be optimistic for some and his defensive projection is based on extremely limited data. Nonetheless, it’s interesting that the result could reach this high at all, and my first projection for him was actually higher. His defense originally came out closer to +26, but I tempered it a bit.
Personally, I’m intrigued by Dunn. There’s no compensation involved, and the market for him is reportedly small. If the Mets could sign him for 10-12 million a year, allowing Murphy to move to second, they could have a very good deal.
Thoughts?
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Yes to Dunn. The low BA and high strikeouts make people underrate him severely. He walks a ton and is an automatic 40 homers every year. That’s some serious juice to add to a lineup that’s already powerful in the heart of the order.
Too bad it doesn’t seem like the Mets are interested in him. Maybe Pat Burrell is also an option, now that Ibanez has signed with Philly?